As polling got underway in Udhampur one of the 102 parliamentary constituencies going to polls on April 19, the matrix of Kashmir politics has changed forever. The battlelines have shifted, and that will be visible in the next few weeks to come, though there is a common perception that Prime Minister Narendra Modi will likely sail into third term in office after June 4 results are out.
The defining feature of the changed landscape is attributable to BJP government at the Centre having done away with Article 370 that granted special status and exclusive privileges to the erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir on August 5, 2019. The Centre has claimed, with certain amount of substance, that the situation has changed for better as Kashmir now is a world-class tourist destination, free of all the fear and terror of Pakistan sponsored terrorism. There is a perceptible peace for which all credit is accorded to the Narendra Modi government as it launched an all-out offensive against terrorism and its ecosystem in the Valley. The irony, however, is that why the BJP is not seeking to reap the political dividends for peace and prosperity as it has limited its flag and symbol to two constituencies of the Jammu region- Udhampur-Doda, and Jammu-Reasi. It has fielded no candidate for any of the three Valley constituencies – Anantnag, Srinagar and Baramulla. It is a political irony.
Not that this absence has gone unquestioned. National Conference vice president and former Chief Minister Omar Abdullah has asked, “ Why is BJP not fielding candidates in the Valley” as he believes that the saffron party has outsourced its political mandate to proxies, whom he calls “A, B, and C teams of BJP.”
Since it was the first major electoral battle since the abrogation of Article 370, BJP should have tested the waters in the Valley as to how much change has occurred since the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. It has not. This, in itself, has changed the contours of its politics, it is called restrained ambition, not playing all the cards all at once. But this question will remain. Perhaps, it watching the ground for future alliances in Kashmir, as that would be very crucial in the Assembly polls that Home Minister Amit Shah has announced will be held within the time schedule announced by Supreme Court – 30th September, 2024.
Kashmir-centric parties have also defined their own way of politics. National Conference’s Omar Abdullah has returned to the Lok Sabha contest after a gap of two decades. He had last contested in 2004 – though his first tryst was in 1998, and then he repeated himself in 1999. All these LS polls, he had contested from Srinagar parliamentary constituency, this time he has shifted to north Kashmir’s Baramulla seat. Not much explanation has come from him as to why did he do so. In fact, NC has changed its candidates from two other constituencies.
PDP, the party led by Mehbooba Mufti, is also in the fray on all three seats. Barring Mehbooba, two other are new faces – Waheed ur Rehman Parra from Srinagar, and Fayaz Mir from Baramulla. Mehbooba herself is contesting from Anantnag-Rajouri constituency.
Most significant is that new political entity Apni Party which has been on the political scene of J&K for four years has emerged as a political force. The party led by Syed Mohammad Altaf Bukhari has fielded candidates from two out of three constituencies – Ashraf Mir from Srinagar and Zafar Iqbal Manhas from Anantnag. This election will also show that how strong this party has emerged against the two entrenched political groups -NC and PDP- as its orientation and campaign is based on two themes – one that the destiny of Kashmiris is linked to India forever. Second, it is asserting itself as a party that speaks truth, no illusions like greater autonomy, self-rule or “azadi” which have resulted in the death of thousands of Kashmiri youth, and he holds NC and PDP that ruled the erstwhile state for a majority of years, responsible for this pile of tragedies.
Amidst all this veteran Congress leader of yesteryear and chairman of his own political party Democratic Progressive Azad Party ( DPAP) has, for all practical purposes, sealed his political fate . First, he announced his candidature from the Anantnag-Rajouri constituency and on Thursday withdrew. The political observers are wondering why a seasoned leader committed a political hara-kiri . He had known all the odds stacked against him, still he encouraged his candidature. These observers also believe that he is working at the behest of BJP, and that might have advised him to save his energy for the Assembly polls. Whatever be the case, he has retreated in not so graceful manner.
It is clear now that the political ventures in this election will determine the future political scenario of Kashmir. It is not all about victory, but the acceptance of the contrasting narratives represented by NC, PDP one side, and Apni Party on the other.
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